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Stock market had positive growth in Q3 after a sharp plunge in Q2 as oil price rebounded, concerns over trade war temporarily cooled down, domestic inflation was kept under control and companies’ performances continued to grow considerably in Q2. Foreign investors returned to net sell in Q3 after net buying for 6 consecutive quarters with sales concentrating in July and August on real estate stocks such as VIC, VHM, VRE, and NVL… External risks maintained their great impact on the recovery trend of the market, including trade war, tightening monetary policy of large Central Banks, along with domestic risks such as inflation, exchange rate and prudent policy of SBV… However, thanks to the significant growth of companies’ performances and the recovery phase of the economy, Vnindex is forecast to keep rising and approaching the 1050-1080 zone in Q4.

GDP Growth: GDP growth strengthened in the first 9 months thanks to robust growth rate in Q1 and Q3, however, it is expected to slow down in Q4/2018. Inflation: Q2 and Q3’s CPI were on the rise, pressure on SBV’s 2018 average inflation target of 4%. Monetary policy: Monetary policy will be more prudent till year-end. Exchange rate: Exchange rate will be under control if VND depreciation is within 3%. External factors will be the most influencers to VND in Q4.

Growth: GDP’s growth strengthened with the highest 1H growth rate since 2011, however it is estimated to slowdown till year-end. Inflation: CPI reached highest June’s CPI since 2011, high pressure on SBV’s inflation target of 4%. Interest Rate: SBV’s monetary may show sign of tightening up in 2H2018. Exchange Rate: Under control if depreciation within 2% movement. Trade deficit, pressure on Balance of Payment.

1. Vietnam Macroeconomics Scorecard from 2009 to 2018 2. Vietnam Stock Market Review in 2Q.2018 3. Stock market’s concerns and opportunities in 3Q.2018 4. Stock market’s scenarios in 2H.2018 5. Recommendations and investment opportunities