Research center

Macro Note: 2019 Foreign Exchange Picture

25/06/2019 02:49:00 PM
Highlights: The VND’s depreciation level was 1.04% YTD by May 31, but the movements of exchange rates on the interbank and unofficial markets were quite different compared to those in the previous period. The main reasons leading to the depreciation of the VND include external factors such as escalating trade tensions between the US and China and the temporary supply constraints of foreign currencies. Outlook: It is forecast that the VND will depreciate 2.0 – 2.5% in the fundamental scenario.

Nam Long Group - Full report

20/06/2019 04:09:00 PM
Nam Long Group is the leading company in mid-high end housing development with reasonable prices Healthy financial condition with debt/equity ratio reaching 0.19. Total area of projects under construction is 400ha. Continue to accumulate 200ha landbank in Type 2 urban area. BUY recommendation for NLG shares Risks do exist.

Phu Nhuan Jewelry - Update Report

20/06/2019 04:05:00 PM
PNJ has owned 327 stores in all over the country by the end of the 1Q/2019 Revenue and profit in the 1Q/2019 increased PNJ increased the investment capital in e-commerce The jewelry retail market is potential The risks are existing

Macro Outlook May 2019

13/06/2019 10:11:56 AM
CPI in May gained 0.49% MoM and the average CPI in the first five months climbed 2.74% YoY – the lowest 5-month average CPI in the last three years. In May, inflation is the most concerned factor in addition to exchange rates, whereas oil and gas prices went up and prolonged hot weather raised the demand of electricity consumption. Figure 1 shows CPI movements by main sectors. Transportation and housing – construction materials (rising 6.49% and 4.20% YoY respectively) are the two sectors that had a large contribution to CPI in May (0.25% and 0.20% MoM). Food and food stuff witnessed insignificant gains (+0.05% MoM, 5.54% YoY) as prices of substitute goods like beef, poultry meat, and seafood surged under the impact of the African swine fever. Core inflation in May inched up 0.13% MoM and 1.9% YoY – in five consecutive months, and approached the target set by the Government (2% YoY) – this means that the remaining room for the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to loosen monetary policy is no

Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam - Full Report

06/06/2019 02:21:00 PM
15% charter capital is expected to be successfully issued to lower the state ownership More positive signals in solving doubted assets No. 1 bank in operating network, asset and loans balance scale HOLD recommendation as business performance may still be affected by asset quality in the next two years, and uncertain ability to raise capital successfully in 2019

FPT Group - Update Report

29/05/2019 03:42:00 PM
2018 revenue went up 17.4% yoy. EBT rose 30% yoy. Software processing and export continues to thrive in the core markets Digital transformation is FPT’s strategy in the upcoming period New BOM members are expected to help FPT make a breakthrough FPT plans to invest VND4.7 trillion in basic construction investment in 2019, increasing 88% yoy. FPT shares are currently traded at attractive prices compared to other peers in the same industry

Vietcombank - Full report

28/05/2019 11:11:00 AM
Vietcombank asset quality ranks in the top group of the whole banking system, which is not only reflected in the low indicators of bad debt or troubled asset, but also in high annual quality of guaranteed asset, strict risk management process and safe securities portfolio. Although VCB is not at the top in terms of asset size or net interest margin (NIM), VCB is showing its profitability at the top of the sector and outstripping other banks in EBT. Although originated as a wholesale bank but with special competitive advantages such as low cost of capital, good asset quality, wide network and convenient payment infrastructure, VCB has many opportunities to soon become the leading bank in retail banking scale, and ousted private commercial banks. VCB currently holds the leading position in payment services for both individual and corporates. In particular, payment services, trade financing and foreign exchange trading will continue to contribute enormously to the bank’s income thanks t

KinhBac City Development - Full report

20/05/2019 03:14:00 PM
KBC is a leading company in industrial real estate with a land bank of 5,174ha, accounting for 5.5% area of the state-owned industrial park land (IPL) and 1100ha of urban area land (UAL) from the North to the South, which is sufficient enough for the company to develop in the next 10 years. According to our assessment, KBC’s IPL leasing segment has been benefited from (1) FDI flow into Vietnam still sees a positive growth (2) Available large land bank (3) Northern infrastructure has gradually been improved(4) Manufactures from China have been moved to Vietnam (5) The number of satellites of Samsung and LG increased. However, we assess that the revenue gains from IPL leasing may saw a dip 2019 as the remarkable industrial parks such as Que Vo and Trang Due almost achieved the maximum occupancy rates in the previous years. Meanwhile, earnings from sold land of Phuc Ninh urban area is expected to go up. In 2019, KBSV forecasts KBC revenue will reach VND2,403 billion (+4% yoy) and NPAT

Macro Outlook April 2019

13/05/2019 04:03:19 PM
The index of industrial production (IIP) in April climbed 0.6% MoM and 9.5% YoY, in which manufacturing and processing still played a key role and boosted the overall growth (+1.2% MoM; +10.5% YoY). IIP of the whole sector was at a moderate level, with IIP of manufacturing and processing saw a two-digit growth in 11 consecutive months. Production of mobile phones increased sharply over the same period in 2018, + 17.2% YoY, and exports of phones and components thus maintained a positive growth rate of +12% YoY in April. This is a positive signal while Samsung's new product line this year opened for sale one week earlier than in 2018 (March 8, 2019 compared to March 16, 2018). In particular, on April 22, Samsung announced to delay the selling date of Galaxy Fold, but this may not affect the manufacturing and exports of Vietnam as in the beginning of 2017. This is the market-penetrative product (estimated to account only for 1% of the total Samsung shipments), and many experts do not c

Macro Outlook 2Q2019

10/05/2019 05:52:45 PM
GDP growth: GDP growth in the 1Q.2019 was moderate with the main forces of processing and manufacturing sector. It is forecast that 2019 GDP will stay positive at 6.6 – 6.8%. Inflation: Inflation in the first three months hit the three-year lows. However, inflation pressure may return in April. The average inflation rate in 2019 is expected to be under control, surrounding 3.8 – 4.0%. Monetary policy: SBV monetary policy was further loosened in the 1Q, but in the rest of the year, it would be more prudent due to the inflation pressure. Exchange rates: VND was quite stable in the 1Q and expected to depreciate by 1.5 -2% in the whole year of 2019.