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IIP in July slightly rebounded compared to June’s. Domestic demand strongly increased, which also resulted in higher retail sales. Agriculture sector still recorded a low growth. CPI inched up in July and the average CPI in the first 7 months of 2019 was the lowest in the last 3 years. A trade surplus was posted in July, thanks to a surge in export growth. Total registered FDI slowed down compared to the same period last year, while disbursed FDI remained stable. USD/VND exchange rates were relatively stable in July, interbank and unofficial exchange rates decreased to the buying rate at SBV. There was a slump in interbank exchange rates in July, and a net-withdrawal from the SBV in OMOs. Primary and secondary government bond trading in July was busy in July with a large trading volume.

It is likely that Vietnam will still be in the watchlist for currency manipulation by the US in the upcoming period as two criteria for this tag of Vietnam will hardly change significantly. There is still a possibility that the US will raise tariffs imposed on some certain commodities from Vietnam, especially in areas where Chinese goods circumventing penalties of US by being shipped through Vietnam.

China is currently the largest trading partner of Vietnam, the devaluation of CNY has created a great pressure on VND movements; and a pressure to the monetary policy of SBV to protect competitive advantages of exports, as well as the production capacity of domestic enterprises against imports from China. We believe that the target of the SBV is to maintain a moderate trend of VND devaluation compared to the USD (although the VND still goes up against the basket of currencies) at about 2%. This level is enough to partly neutralize the adverse impacts on the strong depreciation of the RMB, but still creates a safety buffer to make sure the 3% target, set at the beginning of the year, will not be violated. However, we realize that the pressure of VND devaluation in the coming time is not high due to the following main reasons: (1) Based on the observation of the above technical changes of NEER & REER (Figure 3), the 106 is no longer considered a psychological threshold for VND devalua

NLG’s revenue inQ2/2019 fell 33.7% yoy, NPAT of shareholders of the parent company gained 24% yoy. Healthy financial status with low debt rate. The key projects are implemented and offered for sale according to the company’s plans. 2019 revenue of NLG may reach VND3,408.6 billion (-2% yoy) and NPAT of the parent company will hit VND866.1 billion (+ 13.4% yoy.) Recommended: to BUY

We believe that Vinh Hoan is having the right development steps in the long-term by investing in production lines, expanding farming areas and self-controlling its own fingerling source. Besides, we are optimistic about Vinh Hoan’s ability to develop in the US and EU markets in the coming time. Collagen & Gelatin products will also be potential new steps for Vinh Hoan. In 2019, we estimate that Vinh Hoan's revenue and NPAT will increase by 10% and 7%. Thereby, EPS 2019 of Vinh Hoan will be around VND 16,000. Based on DCF valuation and P/E comparison method, we recommend to BUY Vinh Hoan stocks with a target price of VND115,000, equivalent to a P/E forward at 7x in 2019.

GDP growth: GDP growth in the first two quarters of 2019 was modest with the main force of processing – manufacturing sector. GDP in 2019 is forecast to have a positive growth of 6.6 – 6.8%. Inflation: Inflation in the 1H.2019 hit its 3-year lows, but the inflation pressure is expected to come back due to the increase in the government administrated prices. The average inflation rate in 2019 is under control, stays around 3.5 – 4.0%. Monetary policy: The SBV management of monetary policy was quite easing in 1H.2019, but in the last six months, it will be more prudent under the pressure of core inflation. Exchange rate: The VND dipped 0.54% YTD and is expected to depreciate 2 – 2.5% in the whole year of 2019.

- The VN-Index corrected -3.1% in Q2, but overall, it still maintained an increase of 6.4% from the beginning of this year. - Foreign investors have been net-buying since 2019 with the total value of more than VND10,000 billion. - VN-Index Q1 earnings dropped significantly. As a result, we cut earning growth outlook for 2019 down to 9% (lower than the growth of 13% - 15% in 2015-2016). - Domestic macro factors continued to affect the market moves but external factors may have a bigger impact. The reasonable price for VN-Index in the second half of the year is in a range of 930-1000 points. - Retail and IT sectors have a positive outlook in the 2H of 2019. Meanwhile, the banking, real estate, petroleum, electricity, and pharmaceutical sectors were neutral, although opportunities still exist in some stocks with their own stories.

Maintain the No.1 position on the potential consumer credit market Promote business activities at the parent bank, focusing on developing digital banking individual customers However, asset quality issues after a quick growing period will play a decisive role in VPB valuation

Highlights: The VND’s depreciation level was 1.04% YTD by May 31, but the movements of exchange rates on the interbank and unofficial markets were quite different compared to those in the previous period. The main reasons leading to the depreciation of the VND include external factors such as escalating trade tensions between the US and China and the temporary supply constraints of foreign currencies. Outlook: It is forecast that the VND will depreciate 2.0 – 2.5% in the fundamental scenario.

Nam Long Group is the leading company in mid-high end housing development with reasonable prices Healthy financial condition with debt/equity ratio reaching 0.19. Total area of projects under construction is 400ha. Continue to accumulate 200ha landbank in Type 2 urban area. BUY recommendation for NLG shares Risks do exist.