Macro Outlook Report

GDP Growth: GDP growth strengthened in the first 9 months thanks to robust growth rate in Q1 and Q3, however, it is expected to slow down in Q4/2018. Inflation: Q2 and Q3’s CPI were on the rise, pressure on SBV’s 2018 average inflation target of 4%. Monetary policy: Monetary policy will be more prudent till year-end. Exchange rate: Exchange rate will be under control if VND depreciation is within 3%. External factors will be the most influencers to VND in Q4.

Growth: GDP’s growth strengthened with the highest 1H growth rate since 2011, however it is estimated to slowdown till year-end. Inflation: CPI reached highest June’s CPI since 2011, high pressure on SBV’s inflation target of 4%. Interest Rate: SBV’s monetary may show sign of tightening up in 2H2018. Exchange Rate: Under control if depreciation within 2% movement. Trade deficit, pressure on Balance of Payment.

1. Vietnam Macroeconomics Scorecard from 2009 to 2018 2. Vietnam Stock Market Review in 2Q.2018 3. Stock market’s concerns and opportunities in 3Q.2018 4. Stock market’s scenarios in 2H.2018 5. Recommendations and investment opportunities