Research center

Vietnam Stock Market 2H2019

15/07/2019 10:50:51 AM
GDP growth: GDP growth in the first two quarters of 2019 was modest with the main force of processing – manufacturing sector. GDP in 2019 is forecast to have a positive growth of 6.6 – 6.8%. Inflation: Inflation in the 1H.2019 hit its 3-year lows, but the inflation pressure is expected to come back due to the increase in the government administrated prices. The average inflation rate in 2019 is under control, stays around 3.5 – 4.0%. Monetary policy: The SBV management of monetary policy was quite easing in 1H.2019, but in the last six months, it will be more prudent under the pressure of core inflation. Exchange rate: The VND dipped 0.54% YTD and is expected to depreciate 2 – 2.5% in the whole year of 2019.

Macro Outlook 2H2019

11/07/2019 08:45:03 AM
- The VN-Index corrected -3.1% in Q2, but overall, it still maintained an increase of 6.4% from the beginning of this year. - Foreign investors have been net-buying since 2019 with the total value of more than VND10,000 billion. - VN-Index Q1 earnings dropped significantly. As a result, we cut earning growth outlook for 2019 down to 9% (lower than the growth of 13% - 15% in 2015-2016). - Domestic macro factors continued to affect the market moves but external factors may have a bigger impact. The reasonable price for VN-Index in the second half of the year is in a range of 930-1000 points. - Retail and IT sectors have a positive outlook in the 2H of 2019. Meanwhile, the banking, real estate, petroleum, electricity, and pharmaceutical sectors were neutral, although opportunities still exist in some stocks with their own stories.

Vietnam Prosperity Bank - Full report

07/07/2019 04:03:00 PM
Maintain the No.1 position on the potential consumer credit market Promote business activities at the parent bank, focusing on developing digital banking individual customers However, asset quality issues after a quick growing period will play a decisive role in VPB valuation

Macro Note: 2019 Foreign Exchange Picture

25/06/2019 02:49:00 PM
Highlights: The VND’s depreciation level was 1.04% YTD by May 31, but the movements of exchange rates on the interbank and unofficial markets were quite different compared to those in the previous period. The main reasons leading to the depreciation of the VND include external factors such as escalating trade tensions between the US and China and the temporary supply constraints of foreign currencies. Outlook: It is forecast that the VND will depreciate 2.0 – 2.5% in the fundamental scenario.

Nam Long Group - Full report

20/06/2019 04:09:00 PM
Nam Long Group is the leading company in mid-high end housing development with reasonable prices Healthy financial condition with debt/equity ratio reaching 0.19. Total area of projects under construction is 400ha. Continue to accumulate 200ha landbank in Type 2 urban area. BUY recommendation for NLG shares Risks do exist.

Phu Nhuan Jewelry - Update Report

20/06/2019 04:05:00 PM
PNJ has owned 327 stores in all over the country by the end of the 1Q/2019 Revenue and profit in the 1Q/2019 increased PNJ increased the investment capital in e-commerce The jewelry retail market is potential The risks are existing

Macro Outlook May 2019

13/06/2019 10:11:56 AM
CPI in May gained 0.49% MoM and the average CPI in the first five months climbed 2.74% YoY – the lowest 5-month average CPI in the last three years. In May, inflation is the most concerned factor in addition to exchange rates, whereas oil and gas prices went up and prolonged hot weather raised the demand of electricity consumption. Figure 1 shows CPI movements by main sectors. Transportation and housing – construction materials (rising 6.49% and 4.20% YoY respectively) are the two sectors that had a large contribution to CPI in May (0.25% and 0.20% MoM). Food and food stuff witnessed insignificant gains (+0.05% MoM, 5.54% YoY) as prices of substitute goods like beef, poultry meat, and seafood surged under the impact of the African swine fever. Core inflation in May inched up 0.13% MoM and 1.9% YoY – in five consecutive months, and approached the target set by the Government (2% YoY) – this means that the remaining room for the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to loosen monetary policy is no

Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam - Full Report

06/06/2019 02:21:00 PM
15% charter capital is expected to be successfully issued to lower the state ownership More positive signals in solving doubted assets No. 1 bank in operating network, asset and loans balance scale HOLD recommendation as business performance may still be affected by asset quality in the next two years, and uncertain ability to raise capital successfully in 2019

FPT Group - Update Report

29/05/2019 03:42:00 PM
2018 revenue went up 17.4% yoy. EBT rose 30% yoy. Software processing and export continues to thrive in the core markets Digital transformation is FPT’s strategy in the upcoming period New BOM members are expected to help FPT make a breakthrough FPT plans to invest VND4.7 trillion in basic construction investment in 2019, increasing 88% yoy. FPT shares are currently traded at attractive prices compared to other peers in the same industry

Vietcombank - Full report

28/05/2019 11:11:00 AM
Vietcombank asset quality ranks in the top group of the whole banking system, which is not only reflected in the low indicators of bad debt or troubled asset, but also in high annual quality of guaranteed asset, strict risk management process and safe securities portfolio. Although VCB is not at the top in terms of asset size or net interest margin (NIM), VCB is showing its profitability at the top of the sector and outstripping other banks in EBT. Although originated as a wholesale bank but with special competitive advantages such as low cost of capital, good asset quality, wide network and convenient payment infrastructure, VCB has many opportunities to soon become the leading bank in retail banking scale, and ousted private commercial banks. VCB currently holds the leading position in payment services for both individual and corporates. In particular, payment services, trade financing and foreign exchange trading will continue to contribute enormously to the bank’s income thanks t